Last week, I was chatting with a colleague about a completely innocuous topic when he dropped an unusual question: “Do you think we bear any responsibility for provoking Russia to invade Ukraine?”
It wasn’t the first time I’ve been asked a similarly worded question, and I doubt it will be the last. I try to refrain from quick judgments and instead try to steer the conversation toward what one of my early commanders called “a learning moment.”
“Why do you think the invasion was provoked?” I asked. In response, he offered several familiar theories, ranging from Kyiv’s desire to becoming a member of NATO to the rumors of genocide in the Donbas region prior to the invasion. I listened as he presented a play-by-play of the Russian disinformation themes that foreshadowed the invasion, all of which were part of Putin’s broader information operation in the days and weeks leading up to their attack.
“Those all play well to the right audience,” I explained. “But the truth is far less complicated.” Russia’s economy was – and still is – faltering. The invasion gave Moscow expanded access to natural resources, from the rich lithium deposits in the Donbas region to the grain wealth Ukraine’s rich soil provides. The invasion also gave Putin a proving ground to field test his military reforms – which have shown to be wanting, at best – against what he viewed as a weak opponent.
All he needed to prep the battlespace was a handful of useful idiots.
Web of Lies
A term that was commonly used by the British press in the late 19th century to describe an easily manipulated person who could be coopted for political purposes, “useful idiot” grew to prominence during the Cold War. In his 1947 book, Planned Chaos, economist Ludwig von Mises used the term to describe “confused and misguided sympathizers” of the communist cause who were either unwittingly or unknowingly spreading disinformation – false information deliberately intended to mislead – propagated by the Soviet Union.
The natural evolution of established Tsarist secret police tactics – which used faked materials like The Protocols of the Elders of Zion, the infamous “manual” for Jewish world domination, to distract and discredit their enemies – the Soviet Union used disinformation as a central element of their “active measures” – covert techniques for influencing events and behaviors in foreign countries. According to KGB Lexicon: The Soviet Intelligence Officer’s Handbook, the core goals of such operations were to “exert influence on the adversary” and “weaken his political, economic, scientific, and technical and military positions.”
These lessons were not lost on a young Vladimir Putin. In his 2000 autobiography, First Person, he noted with no small sense of irony, “What amazed me most of all is how one man’s effort could achieve what whole armies could not. One spy could decide the fate of thousands of people.”
Putin’s time as a member of the KGB clearly shaped the leader we see today. A profile of the Russian president describes him as “a spy in disguise, spinning his public image to bond with his [intended] audience.” Kenneth Dekleva, a former senior diplomat who service in Moscow for years, added, “He’s an absolutely ruthless, powerful, ambitious leader who wants both Russia and himself to be respected –and I think now both feared and respected – on the world stage.”
And no one knows how to spin a web of lies better than Vladimir Putin.
Kremlin disinformation has always been central to Russian efforts to achieve their objectives. DoppelGänger, the influence campaign at the heart of the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, promoted pro-Russian narratives across the media landscape by disseminating disinformation through a diverse network of cloned websites, fake articles, and social media manipulation. Those narratives focused on portraying Ukraine “as a failed, corrupt, and Nazi state,” promoting pro-Kremlin themes, and sowing the idea that sanctions against Russia would cause harm to other countries.
All Putin needed was a handful of useful idiots. And he found them.
Countering Disinformation
Disinformation thrives in the absence of critical reasoning. Without critical thinking, we are increasingly vulnerable to being misled, which in turn leads to poor judgment and decision-making. But critical thinking doesn’t come naturally. Our brains are imperfect computers, processing information that tends toward instinctive and intuitive – and therefore biased – reasoning.
There are countless models for critical thinking, but I tend to approach it structurally: the four pillars of critical thinking. The first pillar, analysis, involves identifying the information needed, at what level of detail, and with what priority. The second pillar, interpretation, involves making inferences using inductive or deductive reasoning. Interpretation facilitates the translation of analysis into an actionable plan or approach. The third pillar, evaluation, captures the process of evidence-based assessment. The operative term is evidence –credible, rational, fact-based evidence. The fourth pillar, direction, involves making decisions or framing arguments through logic and reason.
Typically, when someone presents an irrational argument, it’s because they skipped right to the fourth pillar with no stops along the way. As we are all painfully aware, critical thinking is a skill lacking in a large percentage of the population. Too often, people believe whatever they’ve been told, think random internet memes are actually credible evidence, or can’t seem to grasp that others might actually be lying to them.
Fortunately, critical thinking is a skill that be taught and honed through habit. In a 2019 Harvard Business Review article, Helen Lee Bouygues identified three simple habits that foster critical thinking: (1) questioning assumptions, (2) reasoning through logic, and (3) diversifying thought. Forming these habits won’t come easy and will take time – 66 days, on average. But once those habits are firmly rooted, you won’t struggle to form a response when someone presents a ludicrous argument.
And, for the record, the moon landing was real, the Earth isn’t flat, and Russia did, in fact, invade Ukraine on February 24, 2022.
