“A hazy view of what’s to come outperforms complete darkness by a landslide.” – Eric Siegel
The data trace trended toward something that looked a lot like the border separating Kentucky and Ohio – a slow, steady increase in activity. It was late 2012, and bombings and prison breaks around Iraq were a growing concern. “We’re left of boom right now,” the boss said. We all understood his meaning. None of this was coincidental.
The steady rise in attacks with vehicle-borne improvised explosives devices (VBIEDs) was concerning by itself. A signature of al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) since the height of the insurgency, this new wave of bombings suggested a possible resurgence of the terrorist group. Combined with the prison breaks – which freed thousands of jihadists – we could be seeing a surge in violence not seen in years.
There were fewer than 160 of us on the ground, a token force tasked with leading security assistance efforts in the wake of the 2011 withdrawal of forces. Hardly a force capable of contending with a threat of the scale and scope of a resurgent AQI. Staying “left of boom” meant gaining and holding the attention of the right people in Washington while not-so-subtly pushing the government of Iraq to take notice of the burgeoning threat.
What we were seeing wasn’t the second coming of AQI. It was the Islamic State’s “Breaking the Walls” campaign, the systematic, coordinated execution of 24 bombings and eight prison breaks between July 2012 and July 2013. The brainchild of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the campaign swelled the ranks of ISIS and signaled the beginning of an unprecedented reign of terror. By the time al-Baghdadi was killed in 2019, we were well right of boom.
New Year’s Day
The arrival of 2025 was quickly marked with two incidents that sparked reminders of why we work so hard to get left of boom. The first, an ISIS-inspired attack on revelers along Bourbon Street in New Orleans. The second, the suicide of a special forces soldier in a Cybertruck explosion in Las Vegas. In both cases, the search for answers prompts the inevitable desire to get left of boom, to intervene and break the event chain before such incidents occur.
After walking the streets of the French Quarter in the early hours of New Year’s Day and planting at least two improvised explosive devices, Army veteran Shamsud-Din Jabbar posted the first of five videos to Facebook explaining his rationale for the attacks to come – the “war between the believers and the disbelievers” – while claiming to have joined the ranks of ISIS before the previous summer. He completed his last will and testament. Then he drove his rented pickup down Canal Street before driving onto the sidewalk on Bourbon Street and running down dozens of pedestrians before being killed by police.
Hours later, Matthew Livelsberger, a decorated Army Special Forces noncommissioned officer, fatally shot himself in a Tesla Cybertruck just before the contents of the pickup exploded and caught fire outside the Trump hotel in Las Vegas, injuring seven people. He left notes on his cellphone saying that the incident would serve as a “wake up call” for the country and that he needed to cleanse his mind “of the brothers I’ve lost and relieve myself of the burden of the lives I took.”
Jabbar had experienced years of significant financial distress. Failed marriages, struggling businesses, and mounting debt. Livelsberger struggled with the mental and physical toll of the nature his service, and shared that he suffered from exhaustion and pain. He eventually sought treatment for his mental health. In both cases, those who knew the men asked the same questions. What led them down that dark path? Were there signs they’d missed? How could they have helped them?
In other words, what could they have done left of boom?
The Bombmaker
Within hours of the incident in Las Vegas, news broke of a December 17 FBI raid near Norfolk, VA, during which agents discovered the largest stockpile of homemade explosive devices in the Bureau’s history. “More than 150 explosive devices, generally characterized as pipe bombs, were found in a home and garage on a 20-acre farm in Isle of Wight” county in the Hampton Roads area. In addition to the devices, agents found an extensive array of bomb-making materials, including a jar of hexamethylene triperoxide diamine, an especially volatile, yet common, homemade explosive compound used widely in suicide bombings and other attacks.
The arrest culminated a lengthy investigation initiated after an informant told authorities that the man – who reportedly lost all but two fingers on his right hand in 2021 while working on homemade explosives – was stockpiling weapons and ammunition and spoke openly of political assassinations and government conspiracies. The man’s defense attorneys were quick to note that “Authorities haven’t produced evidence that he was planning violence, also noting that he has no criminal record” and “Using a likeness of a political leader as a target at a shooting range is a common practice and not a reason to incarcerate someone.”
Despite the mayhem in New Orleans and Las Vegas, much of the online commentary that followed the arrest of the Virginia man sought to rationalize and even normalize his actions. Just an average American guy building bombs in his garage and not hurting anyone (except himself). What’s wrong with that?
No manifesto. No threats. No known links to terrorist or extremist organizations. Just a huge cache of homemade bombs – some of which hand been hand-labeled as “lethal” and more already loaded into a wearable vest. And many of them deemed unstable enough that technicians detonated the devices on site rather than attempt to transport them. Together, all of that signals intent.
Sometimes, we get left of boom.
