The phrase “data is the new oil” has become a defining metaphor of the 21st century. It reflects the reality that in today’s interconnected world, data is not just a valuable resource—it is the foundation of power, influence, and economic prosperity. Just as oil fueled the geopolitical conflicts of the 20th century, data is increasingly positioned as the resource most likely to ignite conflict in the 21st century.
For cleared professionals, understanding the parallels between data and traditional strategic resources like oil and gold is critical. The historical patterns of resource-driven conflict, combined with the growing strategic value of data, suggest that we are entering an era where control over information may become as contentious as control over territory or natural resources.
Historical Lessons: When Resources Lead to Conflict
Throughout history, competition for valuable resources has driven wars, reshaped borders, and caused staggering human casualties. Gold, once the ultimate symbol of wealth and power, fueled colonial expansion and the mercantilist wars of the 17th and 18th centuries. The Spanish conquest of the Americas, driven by the desire for gold and silver, led to the deaths of millions of indigenous people and permanently altered the demographics and economies of the Western Hemisphere. Similarly, oil—a resource critical to industrialization and modern warfare—has sparked conflicts ranging from World War I to the Gulf Wars of the late 20th century. In World War II, control over oilfields in the Middle East and Eastern Europe was a decisive factor in military strategies, with millions of lives lost as the Axis and Allied powers fought for dominance.
These resource conflicts also spurred major shifts in the global order. The post-World War II era saw the rise of oil-exporting nations as major players on the world stage, reshaping international alliances and trade systems. Just as these past resources dictated the structure of global power, data—already worth billions of dollars annually—is poised to have a similar, if not greater, impact. Unlike gold or oil, which have tangible limits, the monetary value of data is both immense and continuously growing. In 2022 alone, the global data economy was valued at over $274 billion, with projections suggesting it will far exceed this figure in the coming decade.
The competition for data is not limited to its monetary worth. Its role in shaping global power dynamics may lead to major global restructuring. Nations that dominate the collection, processing, and application of data will have significant leverage in economic, military, and technological arenas. As history shows, such imbalances often lead to conflict, with far-reaching consequences for international stability and security.
How Data Could Drive Future Wars
The mechanisms by which data could ignite conflict are already becoming clear. Much like the oil-fueled wars of the 20th century, control over data infrastructure and access to information will be central to future conflicts. Nations are competing to dominate key technologies, such as 5G networks, artificial intelligence, and quantum computing, all of which rely on vast datasets to function effectively. The race to control these technologies is analogous to past battles for oil-rich regions, with similar potential for geopolitical instability.
Beyond infrastructure, the weaponization of data has emerged as a pressing threat. Cyberattacks targeting critical systems—such as energy grids, financial markets, and healthcare networks—highlight the strategic value of data in undermining adversaries. Such attacks, often carried out by state-backed actors, could escalate into broader conflicts if they result in significant economic or human harm. Data also plays a pivotal role in military applications, where artificial intelligence and predictive analytics are increasingly integral to strategic decision-making. Nations that control the most data will gain a decisive advantage, creating a digital arms race that mirrors the nuclear and conventional arms races of the 20th century.
Moreover, data underpins the global economy, making it a target for economic coercion. Nations with significant control over data flow could disrupt global supply chains, manipulate markets, or enforce digital embargoes to weaken rivals. Such tactics, while less visible than traditional warfare, could have equally devastating consequences for global stability.
A Resource for the Future—and a Risk for Conflict
“Data is the new oil” is not just a metaphor—it is a strategic reality with profound implications for the future of global power and conflict. The parallels between data and historical resources like gold and oil are clear: when a resource becomes central to power and prosperity, nations will compete to control it, often at the expense of peace.
However, the stakes are even higher when it comes to data. Unlike physical resources, data’s intangible nature means it is both unlimited in scope and pervasive in its influence. It not only powers economic systems but also underpins military strategies, technological development, and national security. This ubiquity makes data uniquely positioned to drive conflict in ways that may surpass the wars of the past in scale and complexity.
For cleared professionals, the lessons of history are a warning: competition for strategic resources has always led to casualties, global restructuring, and prolonged instability. The question is not whether data will drive conflict, but how prepared we are to mitigate its risks. Nations must balance the pursuit of data dominance with efforts to build resilient systems, promote international cooperation, and prevent the fractures that have historically led to war. Without such measures, the age of data could become one of unprecedented global upheaval, with far-reaching consequences for both national and international security.
