“Despite the changes the group has undertaken, it has shown that it builds,” writes Dr. David Milton of West Point’s Combating Terrorism Center. In that particular case, Milton refers to ISIS’ ability to leverage strategic communications resources more and more effectively, which has proven deadly, if only from second and third order effects. Lt. Gen. Sean MacFarland recently observed, “’This is an enemy that learns as it goes along’ . . . .” MacFarland’s referring to ISIS growing capacity to use commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) drones—not for ISR, but like the United States, as weapons platforms.
ON OUR HEELS
“Pentagon Confronts a New Threat From ISIS” argues the weaponized drone threat is something of a surprise. However, just over a year ago, The Army News Service reported on the Army Test and Evaluation Command’s work to counter the anticipated weaponized drone threat. Back then, researchers at the White Sands Military Missile Range (WSMR) were already concerned not only with weaponized drones, but with the threat of swarms of weaponized COTS drones controlled by COTS software. So by September of last year, technicians at WSMR were “able to put up to 10 drones in the air at a time, conducting basic maneuvers and formations, and return to the launch point.” Nonetheless, NYT reports, “the Pentagon — which is still struggling to come up with ways to bring down drones — was slow to anticipate that militants would turn drones into weapons.” And just now “the Central Intelligence Agency and the Defense Intelligence Agency [have] both rushed to complete classified assessments about the Islamic State’s drone use,” as the NYT reports, apparently relying on an advanced report from West Point’s CTC.
OFF-THE-SHELF INGENUITY
We’ve known for a while that ISIS and everybody else has been using COTS drones for simple reconnaissance. Commercial companies and voyeuristic kids in the neighborhood have been doing that since capable drones hit the market. Likewise, “Islamic State first used drones to film suicide car bomb attacks, which militants have posted online.” While ISIS engineers may be slower learners, they’re learners. And “American and Iraqi commanders said that earlier this year it became clear the group was using drones to help them on the battlefield.” According to NYT, the “Islamic State is using simpler, commercially available drones such as the DJI Phantom, which can be purchased on Amazon. The group attaches small explosive devices to them, essentially making them remotely piloted bombs.” The DJI Phantom 4 goes for just over $1,000. And once one of those babies locks on to you, it might be hard to shake it. According to DJI, the Phantom can “[t]rack moving subjects automatically using ActiveTrack,” among other capabilities.
So, effectively weaponizing COTS drones isn’t rocket-science, and we’ve seen it coming for a while now. Given our counter-IED technology that already defeats remotely activated IEDs with radio interference, defeating COTS drones in the same way shouldn’t be rocket science, either. Indeed, Secretary of the Army Fanning “recently assigned a special office he had created to respond to emerging threats and to study how to stop drones,” write Schmidt and Schmitt. And Defense has “ordered the Pentagon agency in charge of dealing with explosive devices — known as the Joint Improvised-Threat Defeat Organization — to study ways to thwart hostile drones.” Right now, the price tag is $20 million, so far.
I imagine most any techie could crowd-source a solution for significantly less, and significantly more quickly.
Let’s get on it.
