President Donald Trump announced Saturday that he has chosen Gen. Mark Milley, the Army’s current chief of staff, to be the next chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Milley’s impending nomination to succeed Marine Gen. Joseph Dunford sets up the traditional Pentagon parlor game of trying to guess which general officer will move into which open seat, and when.
The chairman of the Joint Chiefs is the nation’s most senior military position. The chairman serves as the senior military adviser not only to the secretary for defense and the president, but to Congress as well.
There were reports that Secretary of Defense James Mattis preferred the Air Force’s chief of staff, Gen. David Goldfein, for the position, leading some (in my opinion ill-informed and mistaken) observers to proclaim the president’s choice a “big deal,” and even a rebuke of Mattis. It is not. There is no formal rule rotating the chairmanship among the four armed services that comprise the Joint Chiefs, but Mattis most likely suggested Goldfein because no Air Force officer has held the chairmanship since Gen. Richard Myers handed the reins to Marine Gen. Peter Pace in 2005.
One ought not interpret Mattis’s recommendation of Goldfein as lack of confidence in Milley. Nor should one interpret Trump’s choice of Milley as lack of confidence in Goldfein. A staff officer’s job is to present the commander with several potential courses of action, to recommend one of them, and to explain the factors leading to the decision to recommend that course. Commanders go against their staffs’ recommendation all the time. It is the commander’s prerogative to choose any of the suggested courses of action, or to choose none of them.
That being said, Milley’s choice raises a few questions.
Not actually nominated yet
The first question is about its timing. For the time being, the chairman may serve two two-year terms; beginning in 2019, that will change to one four-year term. Regardless, Dunford is only a year and two months into his second term, and there is no indication that he will leave the position before his term expires at the end of September 2019. Trump announced his intent in two tweets Saturday, saying only that Dunford “will be retiring.” There’s no reason to replace Dunford before his term is up.
This further illustrates the “tweets are not policy” maxim. The president has not, in fact, nominated Milley. Until the he sends a formal nomination to the Senate for confirmation, it is not official, and likely won’t be until January at the earliest. There is no time left in the current session for the Senate to act on a nomination with any sense of deliberation. The Senate will return to the president any nomination upon which it has not acted when it adjourns later this month. The president must resubmit those nominations after the new Senate convenes next month. Nominating Milley now only to have to renominate him in three weeks is pointless.
Who will replace Milley?
The second question is who will succeed him as the Army’s chief of staff. Gen. Vincent Brooks, who recently relinquished command in Korea, has a large fan club among Pentagon officers and the press, but all indications have been that he’s retiring. I say “indications” because there’s been no announcement. Moving Milley into the chairman’s role before Dunford’s term is finished would clear a spot for Brooks.
Another possibility is Gen. Joseph Votel, who is finishing his term as the commander of the U.S. Central Command. In that role, Votel, a veteran of the Army’s elite 75th Ranger Regiment, has been in charge of operations in Afghanistan, Syria, Yemen, and Iraq since 2016. In August, the president nominated Marine Corps Lt. Gen. Kenneth McKenzie, Jr. to succeed Votel; the Senate held McKenzie’s confirmation hearing last week and is expected to vote on the nomination shortly.
Votel, who also commanded the U.S. Special Operations Command, led the October 2001 raid on Kandahar that marked the first large-scale use of ground forces in Operation Enduring Freedom. Votel, who is one of few men in the Army with two combat parachute jumps, later led the Joint Special Operations Command at Fort Bragg, which includes the Army’s 1st Special Forces operational Detachment Delta (“Delta Force”) and the Naval Special Warfare Development Group (often still called by its former name, “Seal Team 6”).
Votel is less known than Brooks, whom Americans first got to know as the press briefer when he was a one-star general during the 2003 invasion of Iraq. But Votel’s resume as a special operator might be more appealing to the president. If he becomes the CSA, special operators will be at the helm of both the Army and the Joint Chiefs. Milley is Special Forces qualified, although much of his career has been spent on the conventional side.
Vice Chairman also needed
Lastly, the term of Air Force Gen. Paul Selva, currently the vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs, is set to expire before Dunford’s does, but the president has not hinted at a replacement. Previously, some thought Brooks might move to that role, but the Milley announcement ends that speculation. The chairman and vice chairman may not be from the same service. Interestingly, no Army general has served as vice chairman since the Goldwater-Nichols reforms of 1986 created the role.
The National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2019, which changed the length of the chairman’s term, also changed the length of the vice chairman’s term. Currently, a person may serve three two-year terms; beginning in 2021, the vice chairmanship, like the chairmanship, be limited to one four-year term. The vice chairman’s term will begin in odd-numbered years, and will not be permitted to begin the same year as the chairman, causing the two terms to overlap.
Whoever replaces Selva will only serve a two-year term, but under the new law could be reappointed for the full four-year term, though this is unlikely. Starting in 2021, the vice chairmanship will be a “terminal” position unless the president waives the provision prohibiting the vice chairman from becoming chairman. Why Congress bothered to write a law that the president can waive without any serious justification is beyond me.
Let the Pentagon’s new round of musical chairs begin.
