So Syria. Are we or aren’t we? And if we are, how quickly? Those questions remain somewhat up in the air following a weekend of negotiations held in the shadow of the government shutdown.
The White House announced, rather unexpectedly two weeks ago, that they had ordered the withdrawal of the 2,000-or-so U.S. forces inside Syria fighting the Islamic State, or ISIS, insurgents. The claim at the time was that ISIS had been defeated. And to be certain, they suffered a string of catastrophic losses in 2018, losing all the territory they held inside Iraq and much of what they held in Syria.
But no one outside of sycophants in the West Wing really believed the fight was over, and the decision sent shockwaves through the administration. The decision is likely behind the quick exit of Secretary of Defense James Mattis, perhaps the best-loved secretary among the troops ever, and his special envoy to the global coalition dedicated to defeating ISIS, Amb. Brett McGurk.
Side note: McGurk has been improperly branded as an “Obama holdover,” which only tells a narrow part of the story. While it’s true that he was appointed to his position during the Obama administration, that ignores the fact that McGurk clerked for Chief Justice William Rehnquist, served in President George W. Bush’s Coalition Provisional Authority in Iraq, from which he transferred to the National Security Council as Director for Iraq and then senior director for Iraq and Afghanistan. He was one of the chief civilian architects of the 2007 “surge” in Iraq with Gen. David Petraeus, and was one of the few Bush appointees to be retained by the incoming administration of President Barack Obama. Brett McGurk has done yeoman’s work on behalf of the nation’s national security regardless of who occupied the Oval Office and does not deserve the smears that he’s enduring following his principled departure over major policy differences.
The white house backpedals, sort of
South Carolina Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham has emerged in the last few months as one of the White House’s most vocal supporters in the Senate, which allows him to shape policy much more than other Senators. Following the Syria announcement, Graham didn’t hold back. With is patented Southerns style, Graham called the decision “a stain on the honor of the United States,” and “an Obama-like decision” that reduced our allies’ ability to trust our word.
On Sunday, Graham met with the president at the White House to discuss the Syrian situation, urging the president to reconsider. It would seem that he was partially successful. While the Senator admitted that the president shared information that eased his mind somewhat, Graham said, “I think we’re in a pause situation where we are re-evaluating what’s the best way to achieve the president’s objective of having people pay more and do more,” Graham told reporters outside the West Wing.
It now seems that the withdrawal will take four months, not one, and that the deployed forces will continue to engage ISIS where and when necessary. This is a good start, as it at least ensures that in the immediate term, our Kurdish allies in Syria will not be thrown to the “mercy” of our NATO ally Turkey. But this is still no way to run a railroad.
I have praised”strategic unpredictability” in the past, particularly when it comes to North Korean policy (which we need to revisit in this space in the near future). But when it comes to dealing with our allies, unpredictability is the wrong answer. Regardless of your view on the value and extent of our allies contributions, the demand for more is a valid position to take. But that position should be defended with facts, and provide allies a window into the decision-making. It’s one thing to surprise Kim Jong-un. It’s quite another to surprise the countries of whom you are demanding more.
In the best outcome, the four-month withdrawal will be placed on an “indefinite pause.” Regardless of if or how quickly it happens, our allies deserve enough advance notice to plan properly for the aftermath. This most recent decision is a good first step.
