Russia and China seem to be happy with the ongoing violence, but will the rest of the world soon need to step in to stop the ongoing slaughter? Is there really a “responsibility to protect” (R2P)? The military junta that seized control of Myanmar on February 1 of this year is steadily increasing their violence against both opposition parties, seeking a return of an elected government, and against average civilians trying to stay out of the fray. Myanmar is just smaller than Texas in land size, while its current population is around 57 million.
Myanmar History of Military Government
Since gaining independence from the British in 1948, Myanmar has a history of strong-handed military governments squashing democracy and opposition. This latest ousting of the democratic government has sent an already violent nation even further into darkness. Myanmar has been faltering as a nation in the eyes of the international community due to their forced relocation, rapes, and murders of the Muslim Rohingya minority group. While little was done to stem what some called a genocide in the making, this latest expansion of human rights violations might renew the debate.
Full Scale Civil War Seems Imminent
Those who wish to see Myanmar return to civilian elected governance face a tough road ahead. The junta that launched the coup shows no signs of respecting the calls for civilian government and are becoming increasingly erratic and violent. Meanwhile in the United Nations security council, China and Russia are blocking any international action beyond mere words. Inside Myanmar, the long-simmering feuds between various ethnic groups may boil into a full-scale civil war. The Rohingya death toll may pale in comparison as the 10th largest nation by area in East Asia tilts towards disaster.
For China, as is becoming more apparent in foreign affairs, this is about the money. China does not want any international activity to bring order to Myanmar to interfere with their business interests there. Russia generally is happy to work with military dictatorships and human rights abusers, and they want to continue their current arms sales to Myanmar.
Path Ahead for Rest of the World
So where does this leave the rest of the world? Nations who feel that the international community has a right and responsibility to stop genocides and massive human rights violations are now debating the possibilities. Based on the variety of armed groups and unarmed movements at odds with each other in Myanmar, it seems unlikely anyone will have the stomach to send a peacekeeping force into their midst. Economic sanctions are always a popular option, but in a nation that is financially connected to China and already operating in the illicit drug and precious stones market, that might not bring any real pressure either.
Any nation or organization seeking to get involved in Myanmar will have their hands full as they first try to restore elected governance, then bring stability, next wade into the Rohingya issue, and then finally address the long-standing ethnic feuds that abound. The Myanmar government doesn’t even recognize the Rohingya as citizens of their country. Myanmar has a very complicated citizenship recognition system that will hinder any simple efforts at resolving ethnic-based issues.
While it is increasingly clear that even greater disasters await the peoples of Myanmar, it is also increasing likely that no other nation or organization will have much luck in averting the darkness that is falling. “Failed state” status seems imminent for Myanmar, with over 550 known to be killed since the coup; and a massive refugee crisis will surely follow—and it has already started.
