Friday’s release of China’s 12-Point position (China’s Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis) was flawed from the beginning, calling the War in Ukraine a “Crisis”. The question on the minds of western leadership is “how can China have the role as a mediator since they appear biased?” Since hostilities began a year ago, Beijing’s political, military, and economic ties with Moscow have only intensified.
China’s release of their 12-point plan appears to have been a Public Relations (PR) campaign, at best. China has yet to give any condemnation of Russia for the invasion. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has repeatedly sought an audience with Chinese President Xi Jinping since Russia invaded Ukraine last year. Xi has not met or called the Ukrainian president, despite his regular contact with Putin.
On the other hand, Sino-Russian relations have never been better. At the Beijing summit in February 2022, just before the invasion, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin announced a “friendship without limits.” With “no forbidden areas” of cooperation, the Sino-Russian strategic partnership was “superior” to earlier Cold War cold war alliances. Therefore, China can no more play the role of the mediator than Europe, which is firmly entrenched on the side of Kyiv.
The Proposal’s Impact on Ukraine
China’s proposal which can be found on the internet, includes discussion on respecting country sovereignty, abandoning the Cold War mentality, ceasing hostilities, resuming peace talks, protecting nuclear facilities and other humanitarian issues.
Most analyst believe the document is one sided, written by an ally of Russia. Further, it is clear China has self interest in many of the points such as facilitating grain exports, stopping unilateral sanctions, and keeping industrial and supply chains stable.
Never consulting Ukraine, China’s release of the 12-Point paper was cautiously welcomed by Kyiv. President Zelenskyy, desiring a quick and peaceful solution said, “China started talking about Ukraine, and that’s not bad” and “It seems to me that there is respect for our territorial integrity, security issues.”
China’s Plan has no effect on Russia
Putin’s press secretary Dmitry Peskov stated, “Any attempt to work out plans, which would encourage switching the conflict onto a peaceful track, deserve attention.” However, he doubts de-escalation is possible and Russian military operations in Ukraine will continue as they “move towards achieving the set goals.” State-owned Russian press noted the West brushed off the Chinese proposal, with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg declaring Beijing “doesn’t have much credibility” after refusing to side with the U.S.
President Vladimir Putin said Sunday, Russia has no choice but to consider the nuclear capabilities of NATO as the US-led military alliance is seeking the defeat of Russia. Indicating the West was an indirect accomplice to the “crimes” committed by Ukraine, Putin stated, “In today’s conditions, when all the leading NATO countries have declared their main goal as inflicting a strategic defeat on us, so that our people suffer as they say, how can we ignore their nuclear capabilities in these conditions?”
Even if the Chinese 12-point plan were to be executed, Moscow has a lot of injustices to correct. Just one of the points from Friday’s plan states that civilians and prisoners of war (POWs) need to be protected. Earlier in the week, directly counter to the Chinese plan, Moscow televised Putin’s propaganda-laden show, marking the first anniversary of the Russian invasion, which paraded captured children on stage.
During the show, children from Mariupol were brought out to “thank” the invaders. Anna Naumenko, a 15-year-old girl thanked a soldier nicknamed “Yuri Gagarin” for her rescue, “Thank you Uncle Yura for saving me, my sister and hundreds of thousands of children in Mariupol.” There were numerous children on stage and TV, many of whom were recognized by neighbors from Mariupol. These children had suffered Russian bombing, cold and hunger, less than a year ago. “The abomination is that these are not actors,” wrote one neighbor. “They are really children from Mariupol.”
World Reaction
Western diplomats and experts reacted over the weekend with skepticism and disappointment. Predictably, the West does not see value in a biased Chinese peace plan. Most agree there is no incentive for Russia to comply. Further, there is no incentive for Ukraine to comply if Russia does not stop their invasion.
Policy analysts think China is involved solely for public relations reasons. They believe the peace plan and concept of China as mediator – it’s just a tool for attempting to improve relations with Europe and other nations, while pushing an anti-America agenda.
Yesterday, after reiterating its support for Ukraine, the U.S. warned China that helping Russia would ‘alienate’ them from world, with White House National Security advisor Jake Sullivan stating “their weapons would in effect be used for the slaughter of people in Ukraine.”
