The U.S. Navy’s plan to build a dozen Columbia-class submarines is the centerpiece of its modernization plan – but according to a recent warning from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) report, the program could run at least 20% over budget, or about $20 billion.
“CBO estimates that total shipbuilding costs would average about $34 billion to $36 billion (in 2023 dollars) over the next 30 years, which is about 16 percent more than the Navy estimates. Compared with its estimates for the 2023 plan, CBO’s estimates increased by between 5 percent and 10 percent in real (inflation-adjusted) terms, depending on the alternative,” the nonpartisan government watchdog group warned.
The increase in costs reflects current industry conditions, CBO added.
The new class of ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) is meant to replace the U.S. Navy’s current force of 14 aging Ohio-class SSBNs. Since 2013, the service has consistently identified the Columbia-class program as its top priority program.
“The Navy’s broad goal is to build a larger fleet whose firepower is greater and distributed among more platforms than in today’s fleet,” stated the CBO.
Modernizing the Submarine Fleet
The U.S. Navy procured the first Columbia-class sub in FY21, while the service’s proposed FY24 budget request calls for the procurement of the second boat in the class. It has been estimated that the lead Columbia-class submarine will take at least seven years to build and that it won’t be commissioned into the fleet until at least 2028.
That will be followed by another two or three years of testing, training, and preparing the ship for deployment, before it can make its first deterrent patrol. Subsequent submarines in the class would each take about seven years to build and test. Those additional Columbia-class submarines are set to begin construction at an annual rate between 2026 and 2035.
It is important to note that, unlike the goals for other categories of ships, force goals for SSBNs are not determined by the U.S. Navy’s force structure assessments. Rather it is a requirement that stems from the number of submarines needed on station by the DoD’s Strategic Command and, secondarily, by the operational availability of those ships.
As a result, the U.S. Navy’s requirement to replace the Ohio-class SSBNs with a dozen Columbia-class boats has been set for years and remains unchanged. Over the past two years, the United States Navy has determined that it would be possible to extend the service life of five of its Ohio-class submarines by two to three years each so that the SSBN force would remain at 12 vessels or more for all but three years between 2024 and 2053.
The Costs of the Submarines
The first two Columbia-class subs have been funded with incremental funding, where the procurement cost of each boat has been divided into multiple annual increments. The procurement of the first boat was funded with three increments in FY2021-FY2023, while the procurement of the second boat is programmed to be funded with two increments in FY2024 and FY2025.
“The Navy’s FY2024 budget submission estimates the procurement costs of the first and second boats at $15,179.1 million and $9,285.3 million (i.e., about $15.2 billion and $9.3 billion), respectively. The first boat’s procurement cost is much higher than that of subsequent boats in the class because the first boat includes most of the detail design/nonrecurring engineering (DD/NRE) costs for the class,” noted the October 23, 2023, Congressional Research Service (CRS) report titled, “Navy Columbia (SSBN-826) Class Ballistic Missile Submarine Program: Background and Issues for Congress.”
CRS noted several issues for Congress to consider, including the risk due to technical challenges and/or funding-related issues of any delay in designing and building the lead Columbia-class boat, which could put at risk the U.S.
Navy’s ability to have the boat ready for its first scheduled deterrent patrol in 2031, when it is to deploy in the place of the first retiring Ohio-class SSBN
In addition, lawmakers were asked to consider the risk of cost growth in the program, as well as the potential impact of the Columbia-class program on funding that will be available for other Navy programs, including other shipbuilding programs; and finally, the potential industrial-base challenges of building both Columbia-class boats and Virginia-class attack submarines (SSNs) at the same time.
Largest and Most Complex U.S. Subs
The Columbia-class boats will be the largest and most complex submarines to see service with the U.S. Navy, and two U.S. shipbuilders – General Dynamics Electric Boat (Electric Boat) and Huntington Ingalls Industries Newport News Shipbuilding (Newport News) – have been awarded the contracts for the design and construction of the submarines. Electric Boat is the prime contractor for design and construction, with Newport News serving as its major subcontractor.
The boats will be able to carry 16 Trident D4 submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBM). And unlike the Ohio-class, the nuclear-fuel core is expected to power each of the subs for their entire expected 42-year service life – including 124 deterrent patrols.
