The trilateral security partnership for the Indo-Pacific region known as AUKUS could soon expand – as members Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States announced earlier this month that they are considering working more closely with Japan.
The partnership aims to increase the sharing of top-secret technology and joint development of advanced defense capabilities. During last week’s state visit by Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, the White House floated Japan’s entry into the second pillar of the pact in the statement.
The First Pillar – A Nuclear-powered Submarine and More
The pact, which was officially announced in September 2021, is currently involved in the U.S. and the UK assisting Australia in acquiring nuclear-powered submarines. AUKUS also serves to increase cooperation on advanced cyber mechanisms, artificial intelligence and autonomy, quantum technologies, undersea capabilities, hypersonic and counter-hypersonic, electronic warfare, innovation, and information sharing.
The partnership is noted for primarily focusing on military capability, which distinguishes it from the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing alliance that also includes Canada and New Zealand.
Moreover, AUKUS is about maintaining peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific, a point made last week by Justin McFarlin, deputy assistant secretary of defense for international and industry engagement during a panel discussion at Sea-Air-Space 2024, an exposition hosted by the Navy League at National Harbor, Maryland.
Under the plan’s first pillar, Australia will purchase three Virginia-class, conventionally armed, nuclear-powered submarines in time to replace its current fleet of diesel-electric subs in the 2030s. The three countries are also developing a future-generation submarine – the SSN-AUKUS – which will be fielded by the UK in the 2030s and the 2040s.
“Our focus is maintaining the peace and stability in that region,” said McFarlin, who stressed that the technology selected must add mutual value to all participating nations.
“As we look at new opportunities, we’re very focused on what is [the] AUKUS difference that’s going to cause this to be better trilaterally, rather than if it’s just bilateral or one country doing it,” he added.
Second Pillar – Advanced Technologies
The second pillar of the AUKUS alliance will focus on those other emerging defense technologies – and this is where Japan could be included.
“Recognising Japan’s strengths and its close bilateral defense partnerships with all three countries, we are considering cooperation with Japan on AUKUS Pillar II advanced capability projects,” Britain, the U.S., and Australia said in a joint statement published by the British government.
The three AUKUS members have long made their intention clear to involve other countries in Pillar II, and that it would consider several factors including technological innovation, financing, industrial strengths, ability to adequately protect sensitive data and information, and impact on promoting peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region.
However, Pillar II of AUKUS may need to clear several hurdles due to U.S. restrictions on sharing technological secrets even with Australia and Britain, two of Washington’s most trusted partners. However, the United States and Japan may have clear that they will work together to ensure that regional peace and stability.
“President Biden and I demonstrated our commitment to leading the world on the development of the next generation of emerging technologies, such as AI, quantum, semiconductors, biotechnology and clean energy,” Prime Minister Kishida said during a joint address to Congress on Thursday.
It came after Biden and Kishida announced a number of new defense cooperation agreements between Washington and Tokyo. The Japanese leader didn’t commit whether his nation would formally commit to joining the AUKUS Pillar II.
“For Japan, to have a direct cooperation with AUKUS, nothing has been decided at this moment,” Kishida said at a press conference with Biden at the White House.
Sharing of Information
Canberra, London, and Washington are continuing to navigate how to best share key defense technology, and even come to a consensus on how to best overhaul their respective expert controls. Some U.S. lawmakers have suggested that should be accomplished before there is talk of incorporating additional partners.
“The Biden administration has to get the basics of AUKUS right before it expands the pact to other partners,” Sen. James Risch, the top Republican on the Foreign Relations Committee, said in a statement Wednesday
He added that the U.S. State Department still needs to submit a certification to give Australia and Britain broad exemptions to U.S. export control laws.
“Without this certification, cooperation on advanced technologies under AUKUS — the very types of military capabilities needed to counter China — will remain stymied by regulations and bureaucracy,” Risch continued. “Rather than take credit for things it has not yet done, the Biden administration should certify our two closest allies and deliver tangible defense capabilities now. Adding more partners delays capabilities and fails to deter China.”
The fiscal 2024 defense policy bill, which U.S. lawmakers only passed in December, could give Australia and Britain a carveout in Washington’s International Traffic in Arms Regulation, or ITAR. Canada is currently the only country to enjoy a blanket ITAR exemption, Defense News reported. However, the State Department must still certify that Canberra and London have passed comparable export control laws of their own so U.S. technology does not fall into the hands of adversaries like China.
For its part, Beijing has called the AUKUS pact dangerous, warning that it would spur a regional arms race.
