One of the considerations when thinking about getting out is job opportunities. If you’re on active duty or are in the Guard or Reserve full-time and starting to think about life after the military, the timing of your transition matters more than it used to. A January 2026 workforce sustainability report shows that job security across the U.S. has become increasingly uneven and for service members used to predictable pay, steady benefits, and clear timelines, that unevenness can come as a shock.
According to a new study by Affordable Contractors Insurance, New Mexico currently has the most unstable civilian labor market in the country. Researchers analyzed workforce volatility across all 50 states and found that New Mexico experienced the sharpest combination of rising unemployment and shrinking job opportunities over the past year … conditions that can be especially risky for someone transitioning out of uniform.
Between October 2024 and October 2025, New Mexico’s unemployment rate fluctuated by 1.24%, the largest swing nationwide. At the same time, job openings dropped by 1.40%. For civilians already established in the workforce, that volatility is frustrating. For military members separating without a firm offer in hand, it can mean delayed employment, underemployment, or burning through savings faster than planned.
Together, those trends earned New Mexico the worst Workforce Volatility Score of all the states.
Workforce Instability (and Why Veterans Should Care)
This report didn’t just look at unemployment at a single moment in time. Instead, researchers tracked how unpredictable the job market has become over several years, something veterans should pay close attention to when planning a transition.
The study analyzed:
- Month-to-month unemployment swings over five years
- Year-over-year changes in job openings
- Hiring trends
- Voluntary quits, which signal whether workers feel confident enough to leave one job for another
States with higher volatility scores showed bigger swings in unemployment, fewer open roles, declining hiring, and lower quit rates. In plain terms, these are markets where people feel stuck. That matters for veterans because a successful transition often depends on mobility, being able to change roles, relocate, or pivot industries without taking a major financial hit.
The Most Volatile Labor Markets
What stands out in this report isn’t just which states ranked highest for instability, but how that instability shows up. For military members used to structured career paths, the civilian job market can already feel opaque. Volatility makes it even harder to read.
1. New Mexico
New Mexico, the most volatile state in the country, reflects the toughest scenario for a transitioning service member. Rising unemployment, fewer job postings, and declining hiring mean fewer hiring opportunities into the civilian workforce. Workers aren’t quitting because their current jobs are great, but because better options are scarce. For veterans, that increases the risk of accepting a role below their skill level just to get a paycheck.
2. Colorado
Colorado, ranked second, tells a different but equally cautionary story. Unemployment swings were smaller, but job openings dropped more sharply than anywhere else in the country. For veterans moving into tech, engineering, or outdoor-industry roles, this means competition is higher and advancement may stall , even if employment is initially secured.
3. Maryland
On the East Coast, Maryland stands out for reduced hiring despite its proximity to federal agencies and defense contractors. Fewer openings and fewer hires suggest that even veteran-friendly regions with strong government footprints can tighten quickly, especially when budgets or contracts fluctuate.
4. Hawaii
Hawaii presents one of the riskiest environments for transitioning service members. Extreme unemployment swings combined with declining hiring make planning difficult, particularly in an economy heavily dependent on tourism and seasonal work. For military families used to stable housing allowances and predictable income, this kind of volatility can be financially stressful.
5. Mississippi
Mississippi highlights another warning sign: immobility. The state saw the largest drop in voluntary resignations among volatile markets. When workers stop quitting, it’s usually because opportunities elsewhere are limited. For veterans hoping to leverage transferable skills into better-paying civilian roles, this kind of stagnation can slow momentum early in the transition.
Beyond these top five, states like New York, Kentucky, Georgia, Oklahoma, and Texas show that volatility isn’t limited to traditionally weaker economies. Some of these states added job openings, but declining hiring or rising unemployment undercut those gains. For veterans, this reinforces an important lesson: a “hot job market” on paper doesn’t always mean accessible opportunities in reality.
Why Workforce Volatility Hits Veterans Especially Hard
According to analysis cited by Affordable Contractors Insurance, workforce volatility creates hesitation and that hesitation has real consequences.
Sean O’Keefe, CEO and founder of Affordable Contractors Insurance, explains that when unemployment jumps around month to month, workers lose confidence in making long-term decisions. For veterans, this uncertainty collides directly with fixed transition timelines: ETS dates, retirement windows, terminal leave, and benefit elections don’t pause just because the job market is shaky.
When the civilian market feels unpredictable, many veterans delay education, postpone certifications, or stay in interim jobs longer than planned. That can slow career progression, reduce income growth, and erode financial stability … especially for families adjusting from military pay and benefits to civilian equivalents.
The Bigger Picture for Military Transitions
The key takeaway from this report isn’t just which state ranked worst. It’s how widespread workforce instability has become—and how important planning has become for anyone leaving the military.
With job openings shrinking in some regions and unemployment swinging sharply in others, many civilian workers are in wait-and-see mode. Veterans don’t always have that luxury. Understanding where volatility is highest can help service members decide when to separate, where to relocate, and whether to pursue education or certifications before leaving uniform.
In today’s economy, stability isn’t just about whether jobs exist. For veterans, it’s about whether the market is stable enough to support a confident transition.
