Firefly Aerospace’s (FLY) recent contract wins, along with its ability to benefit meaningfully from NASA’s expanded moon exploration plans and the Trump administration’s anti-missile initiative, make it an intriguing stock to watch.
Further, the shares tumbled from $34.51 on April 27 (the day that my bearish piece was published) to $22.90 on September 21. As a result, the shares’ valuation is now much more reasonable, though not especially attractive.
Still, given the company’s past execution issues and its fairly formidable competition when it comes to moon-exploration deals, FLY stock does not seem to be worth buying now.
Additionally, I still believe there are better names for those looking for exposure to the Trump administration’s anti-missile plan, known as Golden Dome.
FLY Has Won SEVERAL Sizeable Deals in Recent Months
In June, the firm disclosed that NASA would pay $144 million to utilize its lunar lander for an upcoming mission. Unveiling another major deal with the space agency, Firefly announced in August that it had obtained a $100 million contract. The latter agreement will enable it “to compete for task orders providing payload processing facilities and services for NASA missions launching from Vandenberg Space Force Base.”
Finally, its SciTec unit received a nearly $94 million contract from the Space Force. Under the latter agreement, which was disclosed in August, SciTec will “create a common architecture and design for the upgrade of ground-based radars.”
Ability to Benefit Meaningfully From NASA’S Moon Plans and Golden Dome
Firefly CEO Jason Kim, speaking on the company’s second-quarter earnings call held on August 11, noted that NASA had enlarged the scope of its Artemis II lunar orbit program, as the agency now intends to launch a Moon Base.
As a result, the agency plans to launch “regular … missions” to the Moon and continuously support satellites in lunar orbit. Indeed, beginning in 2027, NASA wants to carry out “multiple robotic landings” on the Moon.
By offering its Blue Ghost moon lander and ELECTA spacecraft to NASA, Firefly can obtain a sizable chunk of the $20 billion that the agency plans to spend on its moon activities through the end of 2033, the CEO indicated.
Turning to Golden Dome, Scitex obtained a $109 million deal from the Space Force to accelerate and expand a data center.
It’s certainly possible that Firefly will generate very large amounts of revenue from NASA and Golden Dome in the medium to long term.
FIREFLY’S Risks and Limitations
As I alluded to earlier, the company faces tough competition for moon-related contracts. Other names in the sector include Intuitive Machines (LUNR), which has carried out multiple moon landings for NASA, and Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin.
Over the longer term, Elon Musk’s SpaceX (SPCX) plans to carry out “cargo missions to NASA’s moon-orbiting Gateway” and provide NASA with a “human (moon) landing system,” Google AI reports.
With Firefly facing several deep-pocketed, highly experienced competitors, it’s difficult to estimate how much revenue it can generate from NASA’s moon initiatives.
Moreover, as I noted in my previous article, “as of March 2026 … four out of (Firefly’s) first six Alpha rocket missions failed to achieve their primary objectives,” according to Google’s AI Mode.
Given the company’s history, it risks losing its ability to compete for future NASA contracts.
Turning to Golden Dome, as I pointed out earlier, Firefly specializes in data processing, software, and testing apparatus for the initiative. As I stated in my previous column, these projects will probably not be nearly as lucrative as furnishing the “core hardware” for Golden Dome.
Therefore, investors who want exposure to the initiative are likely better off buying the shares of firms that make sensors and missiles which will probably be incorporated into Golden Dome.
FIREFLY’S Valuation Has Improved, But IT’S Still Not Especially Attractive
The average price-to-sales ratio for names that trade on the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM), which specializes in small- and medium-cap names, is around 1.18 times. Conversely, FY’s forward price-sales ratio, based on analysts’ average 2027 sales estimate, is about 5.5 times.
Therefore, given all of the company’s risks and limitations, the valuation of FLY stock is not especially alluring.
*This article is intended to be informational only; it is not financial advice.
