Nearly 10 months into Russia’s full-scale war with Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin’s missile strikes are causing tremendous devastation to the power grid and increasing the suffering of the Ukrainian people. The severe cold weather and lack of power due to targeted infrastructure attacks, are testing Ukrainian resolve. Some say this is Ukrainian President Zelensky’s greatest challenge.
Putin Threats and media Leaks
Others are saying that Russia has clearly been outmaneuvered by a formidable opponent and is now disadvantaged. Much territory has been recovered and the West has backed Ukraine with money, arms, and solidarity. Embarrassed and frustrated, Putin is once again warning of nuclear weapons usage against the Ukraine, as punishment for the Western support.
Russian news agencies are leaking that Ukraine has the capability to strike deep into Russia. Last week, Putin asked for more volunteers for the war effort, as babushkas and others have lost confidence in Russian logic and the ability to win the “Special Military Operation”. As the war continues to grind the nerves of Ukraine and the world, indications are that Russians may be losing faith. Some reports say that ‘vultures are circling Putin’ and that he may face a ‘coup’ from once-loyal henchmen.
Zelensky Faces Challenges
In Ukraine, Zelensky’s biggest test is yet to come. With no end in site and the New Year approaching, indications of a second year of war are becoming obvious. Tens of thousands are dead and millions have been driven from their homes. The continued destruction is causing Zelensky to balance Ukrainian suffering and the desire for reunification of the country to pre-2014 lines.
Making matters more complicated, Kyiv must also contend with increasing pressure from the West for a negotiated ceasefire with Russia. If progress slows and the winter deadlock continues after the infusion of billions in military materiel, Western frustration will grow. That could force Zelensky to the negotiation table.
However, negotiations will prove extremely difficult. Controlling around 20% of Ukraine, Russia says Kyiv must recognize Moscow’s annexation of southern and eastern regions. Zelensky has repeatedly stated every Russian soldier must leave its territory, including the Crimean annexation from 2014. With the safety and security of millions and the potential for nuclear war at stake, the gridlock continues.
Peace or World War on the Horizon?
Over the weekend, veteran U.S. diplomat Henry Kissinger, who served as Secretary of State under Presidents Nixon and Ford, made his thoughts clear in The Spectator, one of the U.K.s oldest publications. The Cold War policy architect stated that a negotiated peace in Ukraine to reduce the risk of another devastating world war is now necessary.
Even though Kissinger states he has repeatedly expressed his “support for the allied military effort to thwart Russia’s aggression in Ukraine,” he now believes, “..the time is approaching to build on the strategic changes which have already been accomplished and to integrate them into a new structure towards achieving peace through negotiation.” Due to the war, Kissinger also wrote neutrality for Ukraine is no longer an option and that NATO membership would need to be part of the negotiation.
The government in Kyiv immediately dismissed Kissinger’s comments, stating that negotiations can not include ceding of territory. Ukrainian presidential aide Mykhailo Podolyak said a negotiated treaty “will be a victory for Putin and a recipe for success for autocrats around the world.”
Podolyak stated, “Mr. Kissinger still has not understood anything … neither the nature of this war, nor its impact on the world order.” He further stated Kissinger’s prescription is simplistic and designed to, “appease the aggressor by sacrificing parts of Ukraine with guarantees of non-aggression against the other states of Eastern Europe.”
CIA Director William Burns said over the weekend that most conflicts end in negotiation, but from the CIA’s perspective, “It’s not our assessment that the Russians are serious at this point about a real negotiation.” Earlier in the week, Russia accused the U.S. of not providing a “constructive approach” toward negotiation talks.
