The United States Navy’s “Silent Service,” the nickname for the Submarine Force due to its operating stealthily beneath the ocean’s surface, could be overtaken in size by China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN), a new report warned. The Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS) has been vocal in highlighting the fact that the Silent Service, along with much of U.S. naval dominance, is in a decline that could be “difficult to reverse.”
CSIS called for the U.S. to deepen its partnerships with Pacific nations, notably Japan and South Korea, while investing more in the domestic shipbuilding industry, “particularly the highly specialized submarine industrial base.”
The State of the Submarine Fleets
The United States Navy remains the world’s largest operator of submarines, with 71 in service, all of which are nuclear-powered, providing unlimited range and endurance. The fleet comprises 14 Ohio-class ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs), which serve as part of the country’s nuclear triad, and four Ohio-class cruise missile submarines (SSGNs) that underwent conversion as part of the START II treaty with Russia.
The U.S. Navy also operates 53 fast attack submarines (SSNs), including 24 Los Angeles-class, three Seawolf-class, and 22 Virginia-class submarines. The latter are still being produced, including the upcoming Block V boats, which will be equipped with the new Virginia Payload Module (VPM). This upgrade will increase its capabilities and enable those boats to replace the aging Ohio-class SSGNs. However, the program is now 24 to 36 months behind schedule.
The good news is that the U.S. Navy still maintains the largest fleet of submarines, having surpassed the Soviet Union during the Cold War. The Soviet Navy’s mix of nuclear-powered and diesel-electric models totaled nearly 200, and it operated more nuclear-powered boats than all other nations combined.
Russia remains the second-largest operator of submarines, with approximately 63 currently in service. However, the Kremlin’s ongoing war in Ukraine and limited shipbuilding capabilities following the dissolution of the Soviet Union have significantly impacted Moscow’s ability to produce submarines at a rate comparable to that of the former Soviet Navy.
China Closing the Gap
Currently, China ranks third in the world in terms of the number of submarines, operating 61, including a mix of nuclear-powered and diesel-electric boats. Beijing has already seen the PLAN surpass the United States Navy in terms of total warships, although many of these are smaller vessels incapable of conducting blue-water naval operations.
Moreover, China has begun to close the gap with aircraft carriers, with three entering service in just the past 15 years, while only one U.S. Navy flattop has been commissioned in the same time. One of the PLAN’s carriers was a former Soviet-era aircraft carrier sold by Ukraine after the Cold War, refurbished, and entered service in 2012. Since then, Beijing has domestically built two carriers, and there is speculation that it is now building a fourth nuclear-powered supercarrier.
The U.S. Navy, with 11 nuclear-powered carriers, will retain a numerical edge, even as it is likely that number will drop to just 10 after USS Nimitz (CVN-68) is retired following its current deployment, and the construction of the future USS John F. Kennedy (CVN-79) continues to run behind schedule.
However, by 2030, China could enjoy a numerical lead over the U.S., while the capabilities of Beijing’s submarines continue to advance. The PLAN’s boats are becoming quieter, faster, and have greater range and endurance.
Currently, China’s subs don’t possess vertical launch system (VLS) cells, but that is another area where it could make a great leap forward.
In other words, China could overtake the U.S. in terms of total submarines, and its boats will be more capable.
CSIS cited a 2023 Pentagon report that “anticipates China growing its submarine force to 80 units by 2035 while retiring older systems, a remarkable level of production, even if the majority are not nuclear powered.”
The other danger is that “Anti-submarine warfare (ASW) has also been a priority for the PLAN, which is improving its ASW doctrine and assets, although the pace of improvement seems to lag behind that of its surface warfare capability.”
Columbia-class Running Late
The problem is further exacerbated by the fact that the submarine industrial base is plagued by the same delays as the aircraft carrier industrial base. The first of the United States Navy’s Columbia-class submarines, the future USS District of Columbia (SSGN-26), is running late, and current estimates warn it won’t be delivered until March 2029, a delay of 17 months from the October 2027 deadline.
The Congressional Research Service (CRS) warned in 2021 that there would be potential industrial-base challenges in building both the Columbia-class SSBNs and the Virginia-class attack submarines simultaneously. Four years later, and both programs are running late.
The issues are also due to several factors, including the U.S. submarine industrial base being significantly smaller than it was during the Cold War, as well as a critical shortage of skilled workers in the base. Lawmakers and industry experts have called for significant investment in the submarine industrial base to increase production capacity. There has also been a push to expand initiatives for developing the workforce and suppliers within the submarine industry, as well as to seek foreign partnerships to increase production.
