In July, the United States Department of Defense (DoD) held a press event showcasing 18 American-made drone prototypes that could be produced using off-the-shelf components for rapid manufacturing. At the time, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth warned in a memo that he was rescinding “restrictive policies” that hindered American drone production and sought to ramp up the military’s arsenal of small unmanned systems.
“Drones are the biggest battlefield innovation in a generation, accounting for most of this year’s casualties in Ukraine. Our adversaries collectively produce millions of cheap drones each year,” Hegseth told reporters in July, noting the U.S. military was still lacking needed quantities of lethal small drones.
Last week, U.S. Secretary of the Army Daniel Driscoll followed up by announcing that the service now plans to acquire at least one million drones in the next two to three years. That could be a tall order, given that the entire United States military only acquires around 50,000 drones annually.
That would be a 20 times increase, but one that Driscoll said is doable.
“It is a big lift. But it is a lift we’re very capable of doing,” Driscoll told Reuters last week.
The ongoing war in Ukraine, which is now well into its third year and quickly approaching a fourth year with no end in sight, has put a spotlight on the capabilities of drones. Small unmanned aerial systems (UAS) have been employed by both sides to target tanks, forward positions, and even critical infrastructure. This past spring, Kyiv’s Special Forces carried out a daring raid, launching first-person drones at remote Russian air bases, destroying or damaging dozens of aircraft on the ground. Likewise, sea-skimming drones have sunk or damaged multiple Russian warships.
The United States Navy has also witnessed firsthand the potential drones have as a force multiplier, as the Iranian-backed Houthis militants in Yemen carried out drone strikes against commercial shipping and also directly targeted U.S. warships operating in the Middle East. The U.S. has been forced to fire expensive interceptor missiles, some costing hundreds of thousands to even millions of dollars, to destroy drones costing a few thousand dollars.
More Like Ordnance Than Hardware
The DoD has recognized the potential that drones offer, and as such, Driscoll has stated that the Army needs to treat drones less like expensive, high-end equipment and more like expendable munitions. Drones should be seen not as fighter planes or even expensive air-to-ground missiles, but rather as low-cost bombs.
Yet, at the same time, drones could be as significant as the introduction of the tank and airplanes that entered service during the First World War, as well as the advances in machine guns, assault rifles, and other weapons carried by the modern warfighter.
“If small arms define the 20th century, drones will define the 21st,” Driscoll said during the AUSA Conference in Washington, D.C., last month. “They’re the perfect convergence of artificial intelligence, advanced materials, batteries and propulsion systems, sensor fusion, and much more. They are reshaping how humans inflict violence on each other at a pace never witnessed in human history.”
Drones will also fill numerous roles, and there won’t be anything close to a “one-size fits all” strategy. The Army has yet to specify what mix of systems it could employ, but it will likely consist of large numbers of small, inexpensive quadcopters that can be used for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) of enemy positions, as well as target acquisition and positioning. Those drones could be supported by loitering munitions, also known as “kamikaze drones,” which serve as one-way attack platforms that could replace more expensive missiles.
“For soldiers, we want to push this tech to your formation so that you can employ it, improve it, and absolutely dominate with it,” Driscoll added. “Across the Army, we will equip soldiers with these kinds of expendable drones that deliver devastating effects at a massive discount.”
The Next Battlefield Game-Changing Technology
The technology within the drones could also vary significantly, potentially resulting in new opportunities for American developers and manufacturers. Already, more than half of the country’s off-the-shelf drones are made by Chinese-based DJI.
Obviously, the United States military can’t depend on Chinese drones, or even components from China. So the calls for one million drones will require an increase in domestic production. That could be a tall order, as the manufacturing sector struggles to find workers. Securing the raw materials will be another challenge, and that is before the U.S. Army has to integrate the drones into its existing force structure, which will include training personnel. As Driscoll noted, it will require a big lift, but there is no denying that drones could be the biggest game changer on the modern battlefield in generations.
The U.S. Army will fund the production of the drones as it divests from some older systems.
“Drones are the future of warfare,” said Driscoll. “And we’ve got to invest in both the offensive and defense capabilities against them.”
