A Master Sergeant used classified information about a military operation (Operation Absolute Resolve) to place prediction market bets. He profited $409,881. He got caught. He is now indicted.
On April 23, federal prosecutors unsealed charges against Gannon Ken Van Dyke for trading on classified information about the military operation to capture Nicolás Maduro.
Trading classified inside info for a Polymarket edge
Van Dyke signed two nondisclosure agreements. He had SCI clearance. He was read in on Operation Absolute Resolve from December 8, 2025, onward. He had inside information on the operation, prior to the operation.
In late December, he created a Polymarket account. He routed through a VPN to a foreign country. He moved $35,000 from his personal bank account through a cryptocurrency exchange.
Between December 27, 2025, and January 2, 2026, he purchased 436,000 “YES” shares betting Maduro would be removed from power by January 31, 2026. He spent $32,538. Average price per share: $0.074.
On January 3, 2026, at 4:21 AM EST, the President announced the operation. By 4:25 AM, the contract price spiked from $0.375 to $0.955. Van Dyke cashed out. Total profit: $409,881.
After the announcement, he attempted to conceal his tracks. He asked Polymarket to delete his account, falsely claiming he lost access to the associated email. He changed the email on his cryptocurrency exchange account to one he created specifically to obscure his identity.
The FBI traced the transactions and both the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the Department of Justice took action. Van Dyke is now facing five counts. Maximum criminal exposure: 50 years.
CFTC/DOJ/White House
Van Dyke knew the operation would happen. He knew the approximate timing. He knew the target. He traded on that knowledge for personal gain.
The Commodity Exchange Act Section 4c(a)(3)—sometimes called the “Eddie Murphy Rule” makes it unlawful for any federal employee or agent who acquires information that affects the price of a swap by virtue of employment to use that information in personal capacity and for personal gain. Van Dyke did exactly that.
CFTC Director of Enforcement David I. Miller stated, “The defendant abused that trust by misappropriating extremely sensitive information regarding U.S. military operations, and by doing so, placed the lives and security of our service members at risk.” Chairman Michael S. Selig noted, “I have been crystal clear that anyone who engages in fraud, manipulation, or insider trading in any of our markets will face the full force of the law.” He continued, “he defendant was entrusted with confidential information about U.S. operations and yet took action that endangered U.S. national security and put the lives of American service members in harm’s way.
“Our men and women in uniform are trusted with classified information in order to accomplish their mission as safely and effectively as possible, and are prohibited from using this highly sensitive information for personal financial gain. Widespread access to prediction markets is a relatively new phenomenon, but federal laws protecting national security information fully apply,” said Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche.
President Trump, when asked about the Van Dyke case and other instances of suspected insider trading on prediction markets, said the world has become “somewhat of a casino.” He assured reporters he would investigate the insider trading matter. The White House subsequently issued an internal staff-wide email warning employees against using confidential information to engage in financial or prediction markets.
For FSOs
FSOs should remind their constituents: misuse of classified information for personal financial gain, including through prediction markets, is a federal crime. Van Dyke’s case demonstrates enforcement is active and outcomes are prosecutable under settled law. Operation Absolute Resolve’s timeline became knowable to someone outside the compartment.
