The era of American supremacy is coming to a close, according to a recent report by the National Intelligence Council. In the annual report, the council makes several predictions about what the world will look like in the future. The report divides its conclusions into mega-trends, which are likely to occur in any scenario, and game changers, whose outcomes are less certain. Game changers for 2030 include individual empowerment, diffusion of power, demographic patterns and the food, water and energy nexus.
Individual empowerment will be spurned by an increase in the middle class, a ‘”tectonic shift” the council notes, with more individuals having more access to technology and resources. While this is largely a good thing, it also opens up the doors for more disruptive technology (as we already see with hacker groups and within terrorist networks) to be used by individuals, not just nation states.
The second mega trend is the decline of the United States, and the rise of Asia. The council predicts that by 2013 Asia will surpass the West in gross domestic product, as well as population size and military spending. On the heels of a major economic downturn and massive decreases in defense spending, it’s not a far-fetched prediction. China is poised to become the world’s largest economy. Rising nations include Colombia, Nigeria and South Africa.
Demographic patterns in the world of 2030 include a rising population as well as aging and urbanization. As cities continue to grow, strain on food and water resources will increase. This rise in population and demand for resources directly correlates to the councils final mega-trend prediction, with is the massive growth in demand for food, water and energy. As the middle class grows across the globe, those in this new economic status will look to increase their access to natural resources that are not easily available to the impoverished. The council didn’t make stark predictions about scarcity, but did say existing resources and infrastructure would be strained, and leadership in growing nations must work to address the growth.
The world of 2030 presents a number of challenges and opportunities within the defense industry. Is American exceptional-ism over, to be replaced by a global economy and rising opportunity in Asia and South America? That’s not a position taken lightly, nor is it a trend to ignore. With the U.S. government bracing itself for sequestration and massive cuts, just getting past 2013 may be the more immediate concern.
