IN TODAY’S OPEN-SOURCE HEADLINES . . .
If the outcome is anything like the sometimes inspiring rhetoric, then ISIS is doomed.
Thursday, Secretary of State John Kerry, Secretary of Defense Carter, and Special Presidential Envoy Brett McGurk delivered opening-day remarks at the much-anticipated Counter-ISIL Ministerial Meeting in Washington, D.C., to foreign ministers, ambassadors, and national representatives from some 45 countries around the world. This is what Kerry calls the “Counter Daesh Coalition.” Forty members attended this first joint session. Director of National Intelligence General Clapper spoke to the group earlier in the day. The meeting takes place as the United States prepares an additional 560 troops to head to Iraq. At the end of the day, Secretary Kerry met with the press.
Secretary Kerry called this first joint meeting of the coalition “an historic effort.” He said, “Nothing like this coalition has ever before been assembled,” and then provided a quick summary of progress against ISIS of the course of the last two years: “Daesh was on a rampage, sweeping across parts of Syria, and overrunning city after city in Iraq. You could see their Toyotas and their flags flying as they simply drove through villages, seemingly unstoppable. Commentators speculated about the possibility that the national borders of the region would be permanently erased and that Daesh might soon encircle and lay siege to Baghdad. The leaders of Daesh, enriched by their plunder and emboldened by success, even claimed to have established a caliphate and to be the rulers of all Islam.” Now, according to Kerry and thanks to the coalition, about 40 percent of ISIS’ territory in Iraq and 20 percent in Syria has been regained, and Secretary Carter said that “we now have the momentum in this fight and clear results on the ground.”
Looking Ahead
During the course of his own remarks, Secretary Carter described the coalition’s three primary objectives: Destroy ISIS in Iraq and Syria, defeat the ISIS threat expanding around the world, and achieve the sort of security in each nation that protects it from the ISIS threat in the future. And Carter teased the press by suggesting the plan is in place that will “culminate in the collapse of ISIL’s control over the cities of Mosul and Raqqa,” though he wouldn’t say more.
And it looks like the question of Phase IV operations are being seriously addressed, though the follow-through will likely be immensely difficult. Carter said, “Of course, even when we win this fight – and let there be no doubt that we will – there’ll still be much more to be done. There’ll be towns to rebuild; there’ll be services to re-establish and communities to restore. Such progress is critical to ensuring that ISIL, once defeated, stays defeated.”
Carter continued, implicitly answering the kinds of concerns International Policy Digest’s Anhvinh Doanvo recited last week. Carter said, “And so we must ensure that when that time comes, the Iraqi and Syrian people have what they need to hold, stabilize, and govern their own territory. For that reason, we cannot – let me repeat that – we cannot allow the coalition stabilization and governance efforts to lag behind our military progress. That was one of the biggest strategic concerns voiced at yesterday’s defense ministerial and it will surely be discussed again here today. And that’s a good thing, because making sure there’s no such lag must be a strategic priority.”
Indeed, Secretary Kerry said that “we’re not following a manual on antiterrorist coalition-building, we’re writing it.” Let’s hope it’s well-written. ISIS in Iraq may be on the verge of collapse, but we can’t miss this time the importance of what comes next.
