Is there a military coup underway in the southeastern African Republic of Zimbabwe? Early this morning, Zimbabwean military leaders appeared on state-run television to announce that the country’s 93-year-old president, Robert Mugabe, was in their custody, although it made it sound as if it was for his own protection.
The military expressly denies the move is a coup d’etat, stating, “We wish to make it abundantly clear that this is not a military takeover of Government. What the Zimbabwe Defence Forces is doing is to pacify a degenerating political, social and economic situation in our country which if not addressed may result in violent conflict.”
Grace Mugabe is the likely target
The statement said that the military was “only targeting criminals around him who are committing crimes that are causing social and economic suffering in the country in order to bring them to justice.” Who those criminals are is not clear at the moment, but Mugabe’s wife, the 52-year old Dr. Amai Grace Mugabe is the most likely target.
In many ways, Grace Mugabe is reminiscent of Winnie Mandela, another younger wife of an African revolutionary hero, who let her own ambitions become her undoing. In August, Grace Mugabe was accused of assaulting a 20-year-old South African model Gabriella Engels in a Johannesburg hotel. Mugabe denied the charges, but claimed diplomatic immunity and returned to the capital of Harare on Aug. 20.
On Nov. 6, President Mugabe, who is the only ruler Zimbabwe has known since gaining independence from Great Britain in 1980, abruptly fired one of his two vice presidents, Emmerson Dambudzo Mnangagwa. The move was widely seen as clearing the way for his wife’s ascension. Grace Mugabe has been consolidating power and is viewed as the likely successor to her increasingly frail husband. It would seem that this rise to power has not sat well with the military.
The Zimbabwean military foreshadowed today’s move on Monday, when it threatened to intervene to stop infighting in the ruling political party, the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front, normally abbreviated as ZANU-PF. Gen. Constantine Chiwenga, commander of the Zimbabwe Defense Forces, said that Mugabe’s revolution is “seriously challenged by counterrevolutionary infiltrators.”
situation has been brewing for several months
On the list of African nations to feature in Daily Intel, Zimbabwe would not be at the top. It does not have an armed opposition to the central government and it is not a base for any insurgent groups threatening its neighbors. It has faced serious economic challenges, and Mugabe’s land reform proposals in 2000 led to the murder of several white landowners, and the seizure by squatters of many more white-owned farms. That policy led to U.S. and European Union sanctions against both Robert and Grace Mugabe, along with an arms embargo, and drove down Zimbabwe’s economy.
Looking back, August was a decisive month for Zimbabwe. In the same week in which Grace was accused of the South African assault, Mugabe announced that he would not prosecute the killers of those white farmers. The government also instituted a new crackdown on dissent via social media, arresting 25-year-old American Martha O’Donovan for a satirical Tweet the government says was intended to lead to the overthrow of the government.
And last month, in what Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau called “a bad April Fool’s joke,” The U.N.’s World Health Organization named Mugabe its “goodwill ambassador.” After nearly universal revulsion at the move, the WHO was forced to rescind the appointment within days.
To be blunt, Mugabe is the prototypical African strongman. The CIA’s World Fact Book does not mince words. “Ignoring international condemnation, Mugabe rigged the 2002 presidential election to ensure his reelection.” In his subsequent reelection campaign in 2008, Mugabe nearly lost to opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai, but following a campaign of violence leading up to a runoff election, Tsvangirai withdrew from the runoff, calling it a “violent sham.”
Mugabe is up for reelection again next year, but given today’s events, that may not happen. Already, the South African new website IOL is reporting that ousted VP Mnangagwa, known as “The Crocodile” for his hardline revolutionary beliefs, has returned to Harare “to take control of the country’s government,” and that Mugabe has agreed to step down in exchange for allowing Grace to leave the country for “safe haven.”
It’s been a busy morning.
