From time to time over the past 20 years we have heard of undersea cable disruption when a ship drags an anchor and catches a cable, pipeline and other inter-country/continental infrastructure is disrupted. In 2017, retired U.S. .S. Admiral James Stavridis, who wrote in the foreword of the Policy Exchange Report, “Undersea Cables – Indispensable, Insecure” that “it is not satellites in the sky, but pipes on the ocean floor that form the backbone of the world’s economy.”
Over the past few days two separate undersea cables connecting Finland and Germany and Sweden and Lithuania in the Baltic Sea were cut. Couple this with the incident involving the Balticconnector pipeline in October 2023 one must take pause as to the nature of the “accidents” given the China hand appears to be complicit in all three. We recently discussed the warning given at the DoDIIS Worldwide Conference of the nexus which has formed with the four nations, Russia, Iran, DPRK, and China and Senator Fischer (NE-R) specifically highlighted the threat to undersea cables posed by Russia.
China’s Yi Peng 3 enters the undersea cable mix
Yi Peng 3 is a Bulk Carrier with a LOA of 225 meters and width of 32.3 meters., registered to China. On November 19, Finland’s Defense Minister Antti Häkkänen identified the Yi Peng 3 as having been navigating in a suspicious manner in the Baltic Sea and having been in the vicinity of the two cables which were cut.
He admonished the nations bordering the Baltic to not allow the ship to leave the Baltic Sea, until the investigation has been completed. As of the morning of November 20, the Yi Peng 3 has departed the Baltic, and is being shadowed by a Danish Navy Danish Navy patrol vessel HDMS Rota (P525) and HDMS Søløven (Y311) in the Kattegat waters where it is anchored between the Baltic and the Skagerrak.
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said that Russia poses a threat, called the cutting of the cables “sabotage” and said this is “a very clear sign that something is afoot. No one believes these cables were severed by mistake, and I also don’t want to believer versions that it was anchors that by chance caused damage to these cables.
China’s NewNew Polar Bar paved the way in October 2023
Just over a year ago, in October 2023 the Chinese vessel, NewNew Polar Bear, purposefully dragged their anchor along the bed of the Baltic Sea and severed the Balticonnector Pipeline which connected Finland and Estonia gas grids. The recovery of the pipeline took months to affect, finally getting back up and running in April 2024. Of import is that this pipeline provided Finland with access to the EU gas market.
Preliminary Damage Assessment to Infrastructure in Baltic Sea
Preliminary damage to Baltic’s telecommunications infrastructure indicates the C-Lion1 submarine cable between Helsinki and the German port of Rostock was cut just south of Oland island in Swedish waters, according to information provided by Finish telecoms operator Cinia. The Arelion submarine cable between the Swedish island of Gotland and Lithuania according to a spokesperson for Lithuanian operator Telia.
The cable cuts caused carriers to engage in alternate routing of telecommunications traffic, to include internet traffic.
Russia’s Spy-Ship Yantar in Irish Waters
The week prior, we have learned that the Irish navy ship, LÉ James Joyce, escorted the Russian spy-ship, Yantar out of the Irish exclusive economic zone, which coincidentally also happens to be the area where submarine pipeline and cables are located. The Yantar, which is officially cataloged as a “oceanographic research vessel with underwater rescue capabilities” has the ability to launch deep-diving submersibles.
Collusion?
The possibility that China and Russia are collaborating and sharing information on current status of undersea cables is high, as the existence of these infrastructure communication links is public knowledge, which appears to be augmented by surveys such as that conducted by the Yantar. The cutting of cables in the Baltic, three times in the past 12 months by Chinese flagged vessels to this jaded-eye is not coincidence. The fact that the Li Peng 3, port call immediately prior to making its transit of the Baltic was the Russian port of Ust-Luga located in the Leningrad Oblast of Russia, near the Estonian border may be especially noteworthy.
As the investigation continues, we will learn more, concerning the two cable cuts and perhaps the level of Russia-China cooperation. Meanwhile, Finland’s foreign minister Elina Valtonen noted the possibility of these cable cuts being a part of hybrid operations being conducted by a hostile state. She went so far as to say, that the events are being taken “very seriously” and “As stated in NATO resolutions from the summer, hybrid measures can also trigger Article 5 if necessary.”
