As a boy, besides winning a game of marbles, other coveted activities included trading a favorite marble for a better specimen. Giving up a favorite cat’s eye for a steelie was seen as a no brainer. But often you ended up with an uneven trade – or worse yet, your cherished marble would be jilted. Similarly, it appears France is having a bad week in the perceived undermining of their multibillion-dollar submarine deal with Australia. In an apparent U-Turn of the Franco-Australian deal, Prime Minister Scott Morrison on Sunday stated Australia was concerned the conventional submarines it ordered from France would not meet its strategic needs. Therefore, Australia canceled the $40 billion-dollar defense deal in favor of an agreement with the United States and the United Kingdom.
Trying to explain a sudden change of plans that caused so much anger in Paris, Morrison stated that he knew France was disappointed but, “Australia’s interests are best served by the trilateral partnership I’ve been able to form with President Biden and Prime Minister Johnson,” and that “Australia’s national interests come first.”
The Australian Government in Canberra announced on September 16 they would castoff a 2016 deal with France to build a fleet of conventional submarines. Instead, Australia would build at least eight nuclear-powered submarines with and using U.S. and British technology, striking a trilateral security partnership within AUKUS pact (UK, U.S. and Australia).
French Perspective
Still licking the wounds from Afghanistan, France feels betrayed by allies again. France’s Ambassador Jean-Pierre Thebault in Canberra expressed to reporters on Saturday, “This has been a huge mistake, a very, very bad handling of the partnership – because it wasn’t a contract, it was a partnership that was supposed to be based on trust, mutual understanding, and sincerity.” Also, over the weekend, French foreign minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said scrapping the deal that had been in the works since 2016 was a “crisis.” “There has been lying, duplicity, a major breach of trust and contempt. This will not do. Things are not going well between us, they’re not going well at all,” he said. Later in the day, France recalled ambassadors from Australia and the U.S., demonstrating frustration and the seriousness of the situation.
the UK Viewpoint
In parliament, Prime Minister Boris Johnson stated the agreement was “not intended to be adversarial” to China. Asked by predecessor Theresa May about Britain being dragged into war with China, Mr. Johnson responded, “The United Kingdom remains determined to defend international law and that is the strong advice we would give to our friends across the world, and the strong advice that we would give to the government in Beijing.”
UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said the government was seeking to build partnerships with “like-minded countries.” Truss told the English press on Sunday that the new deal with Australia and the U.S. shows Britain’s “readiness to be hard-headed in defending our interests and challenging unfair practices and malign acts.”
The U.S. Position
According to the media, AUKUS pact officials have been in highly secret talks for months over a plan to share technology for nuclear-powered submarines. Given the sensitive nature and potential for Chinese anger, discussions were kept extremely quiet. In June at a G7 sideline meeting between President Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron, it now appears the submarine deal never came up, nor in subsequent meetings.
This past week the U.S. formally told France of the agreement. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said there were discussions with the French, 24-48 hours before the public announcement. According to CNN, U.S. officials presumed that Australia would have alerted France to the change in plans and that France’s reaction has come as a surprising to some in the White House.
Will this faux pas pass, or will it permanently damage relations with France? Relations between Biden and Macron will likely take some time to repair. However, will French fury over the new AUKUS pact deal provide a chance for Beijing to improve relations with Europe? When playing marbles as a boy, we played for keeps. When you lost, you lost. Geo-political decisions are very similar. But what are the ramifications of picking up your marbles and going home?
