The acronym “MICE” is used within the intelligence community (IC) to describe some of the key motivations that are employed to recruit individuals for espionage and it stands for “Money, Ideology, Coercion, and Ego.” There may be concerns now that some government employees could be targeted by foreign operatives – notably by China and Russia – following the recent massive layoff efforts being carried out within the federal workforce.
Sources within the IC told CNN this week, “Russia and China are focusing their efforts on recently fired employees with security clearances and probationary employees at risk of being terminated.” This is hardly a new strategy, however.
“The reports that U.S. intelligence has identified Russian and Chinese efforts to recruit disgruntled federal employees are alarming but not surprising. Historically, adversarial intelligence agencies have sought out individuals with grievances against their own government as potential assets,” said geopolitical analyst Irina Tsukerman, president of threat assessment firm Scarab Rising.
“Foreign intelligence services look for individuals who feel alienated, undervalued, or mistreated,” Tuskerman told ClearanceJobs. “Those who are forced out of their positions – whether due to downsizing, policy disagreements, security clearance revocations, or other workplace conflicts – may harbor resentment.”
Of MICE and Men and Women in the Federal Workforce
Concerns over money to pay the bills, and anger at the government for being laid off, could result in some making a rash, or even impulsive decision. This is where the MICE could come into play.
“The risk is real, but I don’t want to make it overblown,” added John V. Berry, Esq., partner at Berry & Berry, PLLC, which specializes in cases related to security clearances.
Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) head Elon Musk’s recent “show” at a political convention with a chainsaw could suggest to some government workers, and contractors alike, that they’re seen as dead weight at best, and possibly a potential adversary at worst.
“The government needs to dial it down,” Berry told ClearanceJobs. “Government employees are suffering anxiety. They have a mortgage, it affects their marriage.”
That could create emotional vulnerability; combined with financial distress or a bruised sense of identity, which Tsukerman said might make those federal workers susceptible to recruitment efforts.
“U.S. intelligence and federal agencies handle vast amounts of sensitive information, from national security secrets to critical infrastructure vulnerabilities,” she added.
“The financial incentives matter especially in an economy where inflation compounds the problems from losing an income – or more than one if some of these employees are married to other downsized civil servants,” warned Tsukerman. “Other motivations can play into this scenario as well. Those who feel slighted by their agency or the U.S. government might see passing information as a way to ‘get back’ at the system. Some people, especially those with strong political or policy views, may believe that working with a foreign power aligns with their personal convictions.”
Thus, while not a shared ideology with a foreign regime, anger at being fired could still pave the way for some to be prime targets for foreign recruitment. Likewise, losing a high-status job can be a blow to someone’s sense of purpose.
“A foreign intelligence service offering them a role where their knowledge is valued can be psychologically enticing. The way the mass layoffs are being handled creates a perfect storm for intelligence agencies to pounce on an opportunity too good to pass,” Tsukerman emphasized. “Especially concerning is the prospect of the mass downsizing of intelligence agencies without a proper vetting process, which can exacerbate the problems, given that many of the staffers there have security clearances, access to classified information which could potentially be smuggled out before they officially vacate the buildings, and highly specialized training that can benefit adversarial intelligence agency recruiters.”
More Than Classified Secrets at Risk
There may also be a perception that foreign actors only recruit those with high level clearance, but that may not be the case.
“Russia and China have long targeted people that have handled classified information, but also individuals who have just worked in federal agencies to get a better idea of how the agencies work,” said Berry.
“Even lower-level employees may have knowledge that, if leaked, could aid adversaries in espionage, cyber operations, or influence campaigns,” Tsukerman concurred. “Beyond information theft, foreign recruitment efforts could also be aimed at spreading disinformation, sabotaging internal operations, or influencing government decision-making through insiders.”
Real Anger or Just Venting and Oversharing
Another concern should be that some individuals who have been laid off could head online, where they may feel they’re venting their frustrations to a receptive audience – possibly to seemingly trusted colleagues on services like LinkedIn, or on a Facebook Group started by other fired workers.
“We should be worried that face groups might pop up on Facebook,” said Berry. “Foreign operatives could also reach out via LinkedIn, Reddit and even TikTok.”
As has been seen with video gamers who have over-shared on forums and social media groups to make a point, some newly released workers could vent, possibly spilling secrets in the process. Some of those individuals could be targeted for recruitment.
“Will that translate into individuals risking criminal prosecution,” pondered Berry. “I don’t know if that will be the case, but for a few people it might.”
And a few is all it may take.
“Though the U.S. government has long recognized insider threats,” said Tsukerman, “this development underscores the need for better off-boarding practices, continuous security monitoring, and increased awareness and education of employees about potential recruitment tactics.”
