Russia has purposefully and continually targeted civilian buildings deep inside Ukraine. There have been over 6,700 civilian deaths during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, 424 were children. Shelling residential neighborhoods, hospitals, and schools, most civilian casualties were caused by explosive weapons, including shelling from heavy artillery, air strikes, and multiple launch rocket systems.
Drone Attack
U.S. policy has been pushing Ukraine to fight Russia with a different set of rules. Even with Ukraine’s capability to attack Russia, very little targeting has occurred inside their borders, with virtually no record of civilian casualties within Russia. That changed last week, when Ukraine conducted three separate drone strikes deep inside Russian territory, with one target only 150 miles from Moscow.
Russia’s initial response was somewhat mild and did not go unnoticed by the West. Previously, Russia has shown restraint toward North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), taking out their frustrations by further bombardment of Ukrainian cities. This time, perhaps out of embarrassment or a desire to avoid panic among Russian civilians, threats of retaliation were not broadcasted.
The U.S. response to the deep attack was also reserved. No one offered congratulations for the audacious mission’s success to the Ukrainians. Further, the U.S. quickly made it clear to the world that we had no hand in the attack. From a policy standpoint, the U.S. has “neither encouraged nor enabled the Ukrainians to strike inside of Russia,” according to Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken. In fact, some officials stated the United States had not provided Ukraine with weapons that could reach that far.
President Biden’s administration has provided billions of dollars in weaponry to Kyiv, throttling the assistance by making no allowances for U.S. or other NATO troops and aircraft in Ukraine, nor Russian deep strikes by Western weapons. The intent is to not cross a “Red Line” established by Russian President Vladimir Putin. The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokeswoman Maria Zakharova has stated previously, “If Washington decides to supply longer-range missiles to Kyiv, then it will be crossing a red line and will become a direct party to the conflict.”
Biden has repeatedly stated, “We’re trying to avoid World War III.” These concerns have prevented the U.S. from providing Kyiv with the long-range weapons like the Lockheed Martin Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS), with a 190-mile range.
Interestingly, these unwritten rules have provided a degree of restraint for Russia and NATO, even as Ukraine continues to suffer from Russian bombardment. The unfortunate result is a war in which Ukraine and Russia are fighting under unequal rules. However, this situation may be changing. As casualties mount and more infrastructure is destroyed, attacks by Ukraine on Russian territory may become more frequent.
Confounding Factors
Saturday, The Times, Britain’s oldest national daily newspaper, reported that the Pentagon is now more likely to support Ukrainian long-range missile attacks on Russia. According to the report, Pentagon fears of a tactical nuclear strike on bordering NATO member state attacks are subsiding among U.S. military planners. The article states that the Pentagon is now more likely to supply Kyiv with longer-range weapons.
The most recent Times report did not go unnoticed by the Kremlin either, as Putin sent an immediate nuclear threat stating the U.S. had given Ukraine a “green light” to launch drone strikes in Russia. Earlier in the week, Putin announced Russia could add a nuclear first strike to its military doctrine. One source in Putin’s circle said last night the current situation “could easily go nuclear.”
Just hours after Russian President Vladimir Putin’s statement, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin spoke on Russia’s provocative behavior stating, “As the Kremlin continues its cruel and unprovoked war of choice against Ukraine, the whole world has seen Putin engage in deeply irresponsible nuclear saber rattling,” adding, “Nuclear powers have a profound responsibility to avoid provocative behavior and to lower the risk of proliferation and to prevent escalation and nuclear war.”
